The odds are stacked when it comes to recovering New Glenn’s second launch—but that’s exactly why it’s so fascinating to watch. While Blue Origin steps into the arena of reusable rockets, the only clear benchmark we have to gauge their chances comes from SpaceX and its Falcon 9. Back in September 2013, SpaceX attempted its first powered descent of a Falcon 9 booster into the ocean during the rocket’s sixth flight. It wasn’t until the ninth flight that they achieved a successful controlled splashdown. Then came the move to drone ship landings: the first attempt in January 2015 ended in failure, but persistence paid off with a successful touchdown on land at the 20th launch. Shortly after, in April 2016 during the 23rd flight, SpaceX nailed the first successful drone ship landing.
Now, here’s the part most people miss—SpaceX didn’t even try to land every booster during those early flights, and they faced plenty of setbacks trying to safely catch an orbital rocket on a tiny platform at sea. Blue Origin’s team, which includes engineers who worked at SpaceX, clearly benefits from those lessons. But let’s get real: pulling off this feat successfully on just the second flight of a brand-new rocket is enormously challenging. The odds aren’t as grim as 3,720 to 1, but they’re far from a confident 75 percent either.
The Crucial Role of Reusability for Profitability
Here’s something that absolutely can’t be ignored—reuse isn’t just a perk; it’s an absolute necessity for New Glenn to cover costs and eventually start turning a profit. Multiple insiders estimate that building the New Glenn’s first stage tops $100 million—and that’s no simple feat. This rocket stage is an engineering marvel, packed with features designed specifically for rapid reuse. But—and this is crucial—those economic benefits hinge entirely on the rocket being recovered intact and ready for refurbishment.
Blue Origin’s plan, under ideal conditions, is to refurbish the "Never Tell Me The Odds" booster in time for its third flight, which is expected to carry the Mark 1 lunar lander—a launch already generating significant buzz. Nominally, this turnaround would take about 90 days, but history suggests caution. SpaceX never reused the very first Falcon 9 booster it landed, and the first time it did successfully refurbish and reuse a booster, it took almost a year (356 days) of careful inspection and work.
But why dwell on the odds? Officially, the conversation shouldn’t even be about probabilities. Instead, what truly matters is the exciting energy that Blue Origin brings to the space community. Their determination and ambitious goals are a much-needed injection of competition and innovation, benefiting everyone involved in the quest to make spaceflight more accessible and sustainable.
So, here’s a question for you: do you think Blue Origin's approach will outpace SpaceX’s early struggle, or is it realistic to expect similar bumps along the way? This is a topic ripe for debate, and your thoughts could shed light on what the future holds for rocket reusability.
